Final result: Carli Judice wins by technical knockout in round 1. We correctly predicted Carli Judice as the winner, but the method was TKO in the first round rather than a unanimous decision.
🧾 Prediction Summary
Carli Judice enters this flyweight matchup as a heavy favorite against undefeated Brazilian Jeisla Chaves, leveraging a three-fight win streak and superior UFC experience to offset Chaves' pristine but less tested record. While Chaves brings a dangerous wrestling base and unblemished confidence, the odds heavily favor Judice's proven ability to dictate pace and land significant strikes at this level. Prediction: Carli Judice wins by unanimous decision.
📅 Match Information
🗓️ Date & time: 2026-08-23T00:40:00 UTC
🏟️ Venue: Golden 1 Arena, Sacramento, United States
🏆 Competition: UFC Fight Night: Judice vs. Chaves
📊 Duration: 3 rounds of 5 minutes
⚖️ Division: Women's Flyweight (125 lbs)
🔴 Team 1: Carli Judice — 9-3-0, Striker / Pressure Fighter
🔵⚪ Team 2: Jeisla Chaves — 7-0-0, Grappler / Wrestler
🥊 In-Depth Fighter Analysis
🔴 Carli Judice
Carli Judice has established herself as a rising contender in the women's flyweight division by rattling off three consecutive victories inside the Octagon. Known as 'Crispy,' she utilizes a high-volume striking attack paired with improved takedown defense to neutralize grapplers and force opponents into uncomfortable exchanges on the feet.
Her recent form suggests she has solved early-career consistency issues, displaying better cardio and fight IQ in her last two performances. Against an undefeated opponent like Chaves, Judice’s familiarity with elite UFC pacing and her ability to stuff initial shot attempts will likely be the deciding factors in whether she can maintain her winning streak.
- Record: 9-3-0 with all three losses coming early in her career against ranked opposition.
- Signature Weapon: High-volume leg kicks and straight right hand leading to TKO or decision finishes.
- Defense: Improved takedown defense estimated above 65% in recent UFC bouts; durable chin.
- Recent Form: Three-fight win streak including two dominant unanimous decisions.
- Key to Victory: Stuff early takedowns to build confidence, then use lateral movement to punish Chaves on the exchange.
🔵 Jeisla Chaves
Jeisla Chaves arrives in Sacramento with an unblemished 7-0 record and a reputation for suffocating top control derived from a strong wrestling foundation. The Brazilian prospect is willing to grapple extensively, often sacrificing strike volume to secure takedowns and drain her opponent's energy reserves over the course of a fight.
However, stepping up to face Judice represents the most significant test of her young career, particularly regarding her ability to impose her will against a striker who has already navigated similar stylistic matchups in the UFC. Chaves must avoid getting drawn into a pure kickboxing match and instead find consistent entries to the clinch or mat to validate her undefeated status.
- Record: 7-0-0 with multiple submission victories showcasing active ground game.
- Signature Weapon: Body lock takedowns transitioning to side control and ground-and-pound.
- Defense: Undefeated record implies solid positional awareness; untested against elite UFC strikers.
- Recent Form: Coming off a victory but facing the highest-ranked opponent of her career.
- Key to Victory: Secure early takedowns to disrupt Judice’s rhythm and accumulate control time for judges.
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| Metric | 🔴 Fighter 1 | 🔵 Fighter 2 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| W-L-D Record | 9-3-0 | 7-0-0 | Jeisla Chaves |
| Finishes (KO/Submission) | 4 finishes | 5 finishes | Jeisla Chaves |
| Height / Reach | 5'6" / 66" | 5'4" / 64" | Carli Judice |
| Age | 27 years old | 24 years old | Jeisla Chaves |
| Form Over Last 5 Fights | W-W-W-L-W | W-W-W-W-W | Jeisla Chaves |
📊 Head-to-Head History
Carli Judice and Jeisla Chaves have not previously met in professional competition. This bout presents a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic where Judice’s proven UFC tenure and recent momentum clash with Chaves’ undefeated potential and wrestling-centric approach, making stylistic execution rather than past history the primary predictor of the outcome.
🤖 Extended AI Analysis
GPT-5.5 • styles match-up
Judice's pressure striking and lateral movement create a natural counter to Chaves' shot-heavy wrestling entries. The Brazilian needs to close distance without eating counters, which becomes increasingly difficult against a three-fight UFC veteran.
DeepSeek-R2 • form and statistics
Judice's three-fight win streak inside the Octagon demonstrates she can implement a game plan across three rounds against varied opposition. Chaves, while undefeated at 7-0, has yet to face a striker with this level of volume and UFC-caliber defensive grappling.
Gemini 3 Pro • size and physicality
Judice carries a measurable height and reach advantage that she has used effectively to manage distance in recent bouts. Chaves will need to work inside that range consistently, and any failed entry risks absorbing clean shots that could swing rounds.
Claude Opus 4.8 • key exchanges
The critical sequence is Chaves' initial takedown attempts in rounds one and two. If Judice stuffs them cleanly, she builds momentum and confidence; if Chaves secures top position early, her ground control could neutralize the striking threat and frustrate the judges.
💰 Average Odds (across bookmakers)
Full Betting Line
Winner
- Carli Judice to win: 1.22
- Jeisla Chaves to win: 4.20
Total Rounds
- Over 2.5 rounds: 1.47
- Under 2.5 rounds: 2.62
Method of Victory
- KO/TKO: 3.10
- Submission: 5.20
- Judges' decision: 1.88
Finish / Decision
- Fight ends inside the distance: yes: 2.45
- Fight goes to decision: 1.52
🎯 Tactical Breakdown & Scenarios
Judice controls the pace and wins on the cards (52%)
Probable score: Unanimous decision 30-27, 29-28, 29-28
Judice stuffs the majority of takedown attempts, lands consistently from range, and builds a clear lead on all three scorecards without needing a finish.
Judice finds a stoppage late (18%)
Probable score: TKO in round 3
Accumulated damage from leg kicks and straight rights forces the referee to intervene in the final frame as Chaves' output drops noticeably.
Chaves springs the upset via control (30%)
Probable score: Unanimous decision or rear-naked choke round 2
Chaves secures early takedowns, accumulates enough top control to win rounds, or catches Judice in a scramble for a submission finish that silences the Sacramento crowd.
🏆 Final AI Consortium Verdict
🎯 Final Prediction
Carli Judice wins by unanimous decision
Judice's proven ability to defend takedowns and maintain striking volume over three rounds gives her a clear path to outscoring Chaves on the judges' cards. The undefeated Brazilian's wrestling is legitimate but untested at this level of striking pressure.
Best bet: Carli Judice to win (1.22)
💎 Optimal Staking Strategy
🥇 main pick (45% of bankroll)
Carli Judice to win 1.22
Judice's three-fight streak and stylistic edge over a wrestler she can stuff makes this the highest-probability outcome on the card. Probability: 78%
💰 safe pick (30% of bankroll)
Over 2.5 rounds 1.47
Chaves' wrestling style and Judice's measured approach both point toward a fight that sees the final bell, reinforcing the decision prediction. Probability: 72%
🎯 method pick (20% of bankroll)
Fight goes to judges' decision 1.52
Neither fighter possesses a one-punch knockout threat at this weight, and Chaves' path to victory is control rather than a highlight finish, making a decision the most likely method. Probability: 65%
⚡ long shot (5% of bankroll)
Carli Judice wins by unanimous decision 2.90
If Judice dominates all three rounds as her recent performances suggest, the specific unanimous decision scoreline offers enhanced value over the simple moneyline. Probability: 42%
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk. Play responsibly. 18+.
❓ FAQ: Carli Judice — Jeisla Chaves
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The bout is scheduled for the UFC Fight Night card at the Golden 1 Arena in Sacramento, California, on August 22, 2026, with a start time of approximately 00:40 UTC on August 23 (evening of August 22 US Eastern Time). The fight is part of the preliminary card, listed as fight 9 of 13 on the main card portion.
Our analysis points to Carli Judice winning by unanimous decision. Her three-fight UFC win streak, proven takedown defense, and superior striking volume give her the tools to outscore Chaves over three rounds. We assign roughly a 52% probability to a decision victory for Judice, with an 18% chance she finds a late stoppage and a 30% window for a Chaves upset.
The market average has Carli Judice as a heavy favorite at approximately 1.22 to win, while Jeisla Chaves sits around 4.20. The over 2.5 rounds line is priced near 1.47, reflecting the expectation that this fight goes the distance. A judges' decision is the most likely method at odds of roughly 1.52, compared to 3.10 for a KO/TKO finish.
No. Carli Judice and Jeisla Chaves have never met in professional competition. This will be their first encounter, so there is no head-to-head history to draw on. The matchup is best understood as a classic striker-versus-grappler clash, with Judice's UFC experience pitted against Chaves' undefeated wrestling pedigree.
For Judice, the critical element is takedown defense. If she can stuff Chaves' initial entries and maintain distance with her reach advantage, she controls the rounds. For Chaves, everything hinges on securing early takedowns and accumulating top control time. The opening exchanges of rounds one and two, where Chaves shoots and Judice reacts, will likely determine whether this becomes a striking showcase or a grappling battle.
UFC Fight Night events are typically broadcast on ESPN+ in the United States, with preliminary bouts available on ESPN or UFC Fight Pass depending on the card structure. International viewers can access the event through their local UFC broadcast partner or UFC Fight Pass. Check your regional sports listings closer to August 22 for confirmed broadcast details. Please gamble responsibly and only if you are 18 or older.