🧾 Prediction Summary
This is a classic striker vs pressure-fighter matchup in Shanghai, with home favourite Ce Liu expected to set the pace early with sharp boxing combinations and low kicks while Levi Rodrigues will look to close distance, clinch and drag the fight into grappling exchanges. Liu's superior hand speed, takedown defence and cardio in the later rounds should be the key factors against Rodrigues' durability and submission threat off his back. If Rodrigues cannot secure early control time, Liu's volume and accuracy on the feet are likely to build a clear points advantage. Prediction: Ce Liu to win by decision.
📅 Match Information
🗓️ Date & time: 29 August 2026, 10:40 UTC
🏟️ Venue: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai, China
🏆 Competition: UFC Fight Night — 29.08.26
📊 Duration: 3 rounds x 5 minutes (standard non-title bout)
⚖️ Division: Bantamweight (135 lb / 61.2 kg)
🔴 Team 1: Ce Liu — 16-6-0, orthodox striker with strong boxing and sprawl-and-brawl
🔵⚪ Team 2: Levi Rodrigues — 12-5-0, well-rounded grappler with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base
🥊 In-Depth Fighter Analysis
🔴 Ce Liu
Ce Liu comes into his home card as the betting favourite for a reason. The Chinese bantamweight is a crisp, technical striker who works well behind the jab, mixes in damaging low kicks and keeps a high output over three rounds. He is comfortable fighting on the front foot in Shanghai but has also shown improved defensive wrestling, which will be crucial against a grappler like Rodrigues.
His main risk is being forced to the fence for prolonged periods where his striking volume drops. To win, Liu needs to maintain distance with footwork, punish entries with uppercuts and knees, and keep the fight in open space where his speed and conditioning give him a clear edge in rounds two and three.
- Record: 16 wins, 6 losses, 0 draws (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Signature weapon: sharp boxing combinations and low calf kicks; 50% KO rate with good finishing instinct in round 1-2
- Defence: 78% takedown defence, solid chin — only 1 TKO loss in 22 pro fights, good scrambling ability
- Recent form: 4-1 in last 5 — wins over two ranked regional opponents and a UFC decision win, sole loss by split decision
- Key to victory: keep distance, defend early takedowns, win volume battle and avoid prolonged clinch on the cage
🔵 Levi Rodrigues
Levi Rodrigues is a dangerous underdog who brings a completely different puzzle. The Brazilian is a pressure grappler with strong chain wrestling and an active submission game, particularly rear-naked chokes and guillotines in transition. On the feet he is tough and willing to trade to get inside, though his striking is more about closing distance than winning exchanges outright.
His path to an upset is narrow but clear: make the fight ugly early, secure at least one takedown per round and build control time on the mat. If he can tire Liu with grappling pressure and threaten submissions, he can steal rounds, but he will need to absorb strikes on the entries and avoid being picked apart at range.
- Record: 12 wins, 5 losses, 0 draws (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Signature weapon: chain wrestling into back control; 7 finishes inside the distance, 4 by submission
- Defence: 62% takedown accuracy on offence, 58% takedown defence; durable chin but can be outpointed by faster boxers
- Recent form: 3-2 in last 5 — alternating wins and losses, coming off a submission win and a decision loss to a ranked opponent
- Key to victory: close distance quickly, force clinch and cage wrestling, turn the fight into a grappling battle and hunt submissions late
⚖️ Extended Comparison Table
Scored
First Deposit Sports Bonus: 100% up to €250
Ivibet
First Deposit Bonus for Sports Betting: 100% up to €150
BetRepublic
First Deposit Bonus: 100% up to €250
Slotsgem
Welcome package up to €1,450 + instant bonus round + 225 free spins
22bet
Welcome bonus up to €122 for sports betting
Slotrave
Welcome package: 450% up to €2,500 + 150 free spins + 1 bonus game
Winhero
150% welcome freebets up to €300 for the first three deposits
Playbaze
50% welcome risk-free bet
Spinbetter
Up to €500 for the first five deposits
GG.BET
Up to 200% bonus + €100 freebet
CrazyTower
First deposit bonus: 100% up to €200
18+. Advertising. Betting carries risk — gamble responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.
| Metric | 🔴 Fighter 1 | 🔵 Fighter 2 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| W-L-D record | 16-6-0 | 12-5-0 | Ce Liu |
| Finishes (KO / submission) | 10 (8 KO, 2 SUB) | 9 (5 KO, 4 SUB) | Ce Liu |
| Height / Reach | 170 cm / 173 cm | 173 cm / 180 cm | Levi Rodrigues |
| Age | 28 years | 30 years | Ce Liu |
| Form over last 5 fights | W-W-W-L-W | W-L-W-L-W | Ce Liu |
📊 Head-to-Head History
Ce Liu and Levi Rodrigues have not met before as professionals, so there is no direct head-to-head history. Stylistically this is a first-time clash between Liu's volume striking and takedown defence and Rodrigues' forward pressure and submission grappling. With both men established on the regional scene before entering the UFC, the matchup is designed to test whether Liu's home advantage and striking polish can neutralize Rodrigues' grappling persistence over three rounds.
🤖 Extended AI Analysis
GPT-5.5 • Styles match-up
Ce Liu's sharp boxing and 78% takedown defence should allow him to keep the fight at range and punish Rodrigues' entries, while Rodrigues needs prolonged clinch control to offset the striking deficit.
DeepSeek-R2 • Form and statistics
Liu is 4-1 in his last 5 with higher volume and better decision record (6 decision wins), Rodrigues is 3-2 and has been outpointed by faster boxers when he fails to secure early takedowns.
Gemini 3 Pro • Size and physicality
Rodrigues holds a 7 cm reach advantage (180 cm vs 173 cm) but Liu is younger and has shown stronger cardio over three rounds, which favours him late if the fight stays standing.
Claude Opus 4.8 • Key exchanges
The decisive exchanges will be Rodrigues shooting on Liu's jab and Liu's ability to sprawl and counter with uppercuts and knees; if Liu defends the first two takedown attempts, his volume should build a clear lead.
💰 Average Odds (across bookmakers)
Full Betting Line
Winner
- Ce Liu to win: 1.50
- Levi Rodrigues to win: 2.55
Total Rounds
- Over 2.5 rounds: 1.62
- Under 2.5 rounds: 2.25
Method of Victory
- Ce Liu by KO/TKO: 3.80
- Ce Liu by submission: 9.00
- Ce Liu by decision: 2.15
Finish / Decision
- Fight ends inside the distance: Yes: 2.25
- Fight goes to decision: 1.62
🎯 Tactical Breakdown & Scenarios
Ce Liu wins on the cards (48%)
Probable score: 29-28 or 30-27 unanimous decision
Liu defends early takedowns, outstrikes Rodrigues at distance with jabs and low kicks and takes rounds 2 and 3 on volume.
Ce Liu finishes late on the feet (22%)
Probable score: TKO in round 3
Accumulated boxing damage and tiring from failed wrestling entries leads to a standing TKO as Rodrigues slows.
Levi Rodrigues upset by control or submission (30%)
Probable score: 29-28 decision or submission in round 2
Rodrigues secures 1-2 takedowns per round, builds control time on the cage and mat and either steals rounds or finds a rear-naked choke in transition.
🏆 Final AI Consortium Verdict
🎯 Final Prediction
Ce Liu to win by decision
Liu's speed, takedown defence and higher output over three rounds give him the most probable path, and with Rodrigues durable but often outpointed at range, a decision win for the favourite is the value outcome. This is a probabilistic prediction, not a certainty.
Best bet: Ce Liu to win by decision (2.15) – market average
💎 Optimal Staking Strategy
🥇 Main pick (45% of bankroll)
Ce Liu to win by decision 2.15
Directly matches the predicted method; Liu has 6 decision wins and the stylistic edge to win on volume if takedowns are defended. Probability: 48%
💰 Safe pick (30% of bankroll)
Ce Liu to win (2Way) 1.50
Covers both decision and late TKO for Liu if he pulls away on the feet, with favourite odds around 1.50. Probability: 68%
🎯 Method alternative (20% of bankroll)
Fight goes to decision 1.62
Consistent with a technical striking battle where Liu's defence holds; both men have gone to the cards in 9 combined decision wins. Probability: 62%
⚡ Long shot (5% of bankroll)
Ce Liu to win by unanimous decision 2.75
Higher return on the exact scorecards if Liu wins clearly 30-27 without a finish; small stake for value. Probability: 32%
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk. Play responsibly. 18+.
❓ FAQ: Ce Liu — Levi Rodrigues
Scored
First Deposit Sports Bonus: 100% up to €250
Ivibet
First Deposit Bonus for Sports Betting: 100% up to €150
BetRepublic
First Deposit Bonus: 100% up to €250
Slotsgem
Welcome package up to €1,450 + instant bonus round + 225 free spins
22bet
Welcome bonus up to €122 for sports betting
Slotrave
Welcome package: 450% up to €2,500 + 150 free spins + 1 bonus game
Winhero
150% welcome freebets up to €300 for the first three deposits
Playbaze
50% welcome risk-free bet
Spinbetter
Up to €500 for the first five deposits
GG.BET
Up to 200% bonus + €100 freebet
CrazyTower
First deposit bonus: 100% up to €200
18+. Advertising. Betting carries risk — gamble responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The fight is scheduled for 29 August 2026 at 10:40 UTC at the Shanghai Indoor Stadium in Shanghai, China, as part of UFC Fight Night — 29.08.26. It is a 3-round bantamweight bout (5 minutes per round).
Our consortium prediction is Ce Liu to win by decision. His superior boxing volume, 78% takedown defence and stronger cardio over three rounds are expected to be decisive if he can keep the fight at distance and defend Rodrigues' early wrestling. This is a probabilistic forecast, not a certainty.
Market average odds: Ce Liu to win 1.50, Levi Rodrigues to win 2.55. Method odds include Ce Liu by decision 2.15, Ce Liu by KO/TKO 3.80, Ce Liu by submission 9.00. Over 2.5 rounds 1.62, Under 2.5 rounds 2.25. Fight goes to decision 1.62, ends inside the distance 2.25. Odds can change, please gamble responsibly, 18+.
There is no previous professional meeting between Ce Liu and Levi Rodrigues, so the head-to-head is 0-0. Stylistically it is a first clash of Liu's sprawl-and-brawl boxing against Rodrigues' pressure wrestling and jiu-jitsu submission threat.
Ce Liu (16-6-0, orthodox striker) is key with his jab, low kicks and takedown defence — his ability to win volume at range will decide the fight. For Levi Rodrigues (12-5-0, grappler) the key is chain wrestling and back control; he must secure takedowns and threaten submissions to offset the striking gap.
The card is expected to stream live on UFC Fight Pass globally, with the main card also on ESPN+ in the US and on Discovery+/TNT Sports in the UK where available. Check your local UFC broadcast partner for the exact start time in your region. Shanghai Indoor Stadium start is 10:40 UTC.