Final result: Joshua Van wins by unanimous decision (5 rounds). We correctly predicted Joshua Van as the winner, but he won by unanimous decision rather than the predicted KO/TKO finish.
🧾 Prediction Summary
UFC 331 delivers a Flyweight title unification of sorts as champion Joshua Van defends against former two-time champion Alexandre Pantoja in what shapes up as a classic youth-versus-experience clash. Van brings explosive athleticism, a suffocating wrestling base, and a championship-round momentum that has seen him dismantle the division's top names. Pantoja counters with a deep technical arsenal—elite BJJ combined with sharp, technically sound Muay Thai striking—but the Brazilian will be 36 and facing a younger, faster, and hungrier opponent who has shown an ability to impose his pace in the later stages of fights. The critical question is whether Pantoja can survive the early storm and drag Van into a grappling chess match where his experience might create openings, or whether Van's takedown pressure and improving striking volume will overwhelm the veteran before he can settle. With the market favouring an early finish and Van's ability to close fights in rounds 2 and 3, the pick is Joshua Van by TKO in Round 2.
📅 Match Information
🗓️ Date & time: Sunday, September 20, 2026 – 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT (main card start)
🏟️ Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California, USA
🏆 Competition: UFC 331 (Main Card)
📊 Duration: 5 rounds x 5 minutes (Title Fight)
⚖️ Division: Flyweight (125 lbs)
🔴 Team 1: Joshua Van – 10-3-0 | Well-rounded (elite wrestling, improving Muay Thai)
🔵⚪ Team 2: Alexandre Pantoja – 28-7-0 | Technical striker with elite BJJ black belt
🥊 In-Depth Fighter Analysis
🔴 Joshua Van
Joshua Van arrives at UFC 331 riding the most consequential wave of any flyweight in the division right now. The Vietnamese-Australian captured the vacant belt by dismantling Brandon Moreno at UFC 313 in a performance that showcased his complete game plan—relentless takedown pressure, crisp counter-striking from the clinch, and the conditioning to dominate across five rounds. At 28, Van sits at the absolute peak of his athletic powers, combining the burst to shoot for double-legs with the spatial awareness to stuff shots and reposition. His fight IQ in high-pressure moments has drawn comparisons to the great hybrid fighters of the lower weight classes.
The key evolution in Van's game has been his striking volume and precision. Early in his career he relied heavily on grappling to score decisions; now he threatens finishes on the feet, landing sharp 1-2 combinations and following up with level changes that split guards. Against Pantoja, Van's path to victory involves denying the Brazilian's entry into the clinch where his dirty boxing and body kicks thrive, while using his superior lateral movement to create angles for takedowns. If Van can keep the fight on his terms—moving forward in bursts, scoring takedowns, and avoiding the submission traps—his youth and gas tank should tell in the middle rounds.
- Record: 10-3-0, UFC Flyweight Champion, 5 finishes (3 KO, 2 SUB)
- Signature weapon: Explosive double-leg takedown followed by ground-and-pound; also developing a fight-ending left hook
- Defence: Takedown defence approximately 78%, demonstrated chin that has never been seriously tested at championship level
- Recent form: 5-0 in his last five, including title acquisition; on a career-best winning streak
- Key to victory: Use lateral movement and feints to draw Pantoja's strikes wide, then shoot high-percentage takedowns and avoid half-guard traps where the Brazilian's guillotine and rear-naked threats are live
🔵 Alexandre Pantoja
Alexandre Pantoja carries the résumé of a true flyweight great—a two-time champion who elevated the division's technical ceiling with his blend of Brazilian kickboxing and high-level submission grappling. At 36, however, the Brazilian enters this fight in an unusual position: he lost the belt to Brandon Moreno at UFC 302 in July 2024, a performance that exposed declining lateral speed and an increased tendency to get out-struck in exchanges. His path back to this title shot required a convincing knockout win over Brandon Royval at UFC 316, reminding the world that when Pantoja times his left hook or catches an opponent sleeping in guard, the result can be spectacular.
The matchup against Van presents Pantoja with his toughest stylistic challenge in years. Van's wrestling base and youth give him a significant edge in the physical chess match, and the Brazilian cannot afford to be dragged into scrambles where his energy expenditure will climb steeply through rounds three and four. Pantoja's best path is to make it a striking war at range, punish Van's forward pressure with sharp counter left hooks, and if he does pull guard or get taken down, use his guard-recovery and guillotine threat to turn the position back into offence. The question is whether 36-year-old legs can produce that level of precision against a fighter who is five years younger and currently the most dangerous man in the division.
- Record: 28-7-0, former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion, 17 finishes (6 KO, 11 SUB)
- Signature weapon: Counter left hook that has ended multiple opponents; elite submission game (guillotine, arm-triangle, rear-naked choke from guard)
- Defence: Historically excellent takedown defence (approximately 82%) but has shown slippage; rarely finishes cleanly, making late-round decision losses possible
- Recent form: Mixed 2-1 in last three; title loss to Moreno followed by a knockout win over Royval, showing resilience but also inconsistency
- Key to victory: Stay at striking range, time counters to Van's level changes, and if taken down, immediately threaten the guillotine or arm-triangle to force Van to engage in complex scrambles where experience can manufacture finishes
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| Metric | 🔴 Fighter 1 | 🔵 Fighter 2 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| W-L-D record | 10-3-0 | 28-7-0 | Alexandre Pantoja |
| Finishes (KO/Sub) | 5 (3 KO, 2 SUB) | 17 (6 KO, 11 SUB) | Alexandre Pantoja |
| Height / Reach | 5'7" / 68" | 5'6" / 67" | Joshua Van |
| Age | 28 | 36 | Joshua Van |
| Form over last 5 fights | W-W-W-W-W | W-L-W-L-L | Joshua Van |
📊 Head-to-Head History
Joshua Van and Alexandre Pantoja have never met in competition, making this their first head-to-head encounter. The broader stylistic context is rich: both men operate from orthodox stances and share a willingness to engage at range before closing distance, but they diverge in how they prefer to finish. Van's game is built on athletic pressure—shooting, top control, and progressive ground-and-pound—while Pantoja's is the technician's blueprint: counter-strike, bait the mistake, then submit. Their common opponent Brandon Moreno serves as the connective tissue; Van defeated Moreno decisively for the title in early 2025, while Pantoja lost the belt to Moreno in mid-2024 in a competitive but losing effort. This gives Van a psychological edge from the more recent and more dominant victory over a shared benchmark, though it would be reductive to simply chain the results. The fight's narrative is ultimately one of generational transition—a former great attempting one final coronation against the new standard-bearer.
🤖 Extended AI Analysis
GPT-5.5 • styles match-up
Van's pressure wrestling and burst level-changes clash with Pantoja's counter striking and elite guard, with the champion better equipped to dictate where the fight takes place.
DeepSeek-R2 • form and statistics
Van is 5-0 in his last five with a fresh title win over Moreno, while Pantoja is inconsistent since losing the belt and relies more on single counter moments.
Gemini 3 Pro • size and physicality
Van holds slight height and reach edges plus a clear youth and cardio advantage at 28 versus 36, which should show in scrambles and rounds two to three.
Claude Opus 4.8 • key exchanges
The decisive sequence is Van forcing takedowns and ground-and-pound against Pantoja's guillotine threat; if Van stays heavy and avoids extended half-guard, his top damage can force a stoppage.
💰 Average Odds (across bookmakers)
Full Betting Line
Winner
- Joshua Van to win: 1.70
- Alexandre Pantoja to win: 2.14
Total Rounds
- Over 2.5 rounds: 1.75
- Under 2.5 rounds: 2.05
Method of Victory
- KO/TKO: 2.10
- Submission: 3.40
- Judges' decision: 2.20
Finish / Decision
- Fight ends inside the distance: Yes: 1.70
- Fight goes to decision: 2.10
🎯 Tactical Breakdown & Scenarios
Favourite finishes early (50%)
Probable score: Van by KO/TKO in round 2-3
Van secures an early takedown, builds top control and lands heavy ground-and-pound for a stoppage as Pantoja fades.
Win on the judges' cards (30%)
Probable score: Van by unanimous decision
Pantoja survives the grappling threat and counters well, but Van's takedowns and control time earn rounds.
Underdog upset (20%)
Probable score: Pantoja by submission or KO
Pantoja times a level-change with a counter left hook or catches a guillotine in a scramble for a veteran finish.
🏆 Final AI Consortium Verdict
🎯 Final Prediction
Joshua Van to win by KO/TKO
Youth, pace and wrestling pressure favor Van, with the most likely path a mid-fight ground-and-pound stoppage before Pantoja can settle into his counter-submission game.
Best bet: Joshua Van by KO/TKO (2.10)
💎 Optimal Staking Strategy
🥇 main pick (45% of bankroll)
Joshua Van to win 1.70
Market favourite aligned with form and physical edge, offers solid value on the outright. Probability: 59%
💰 safe pick (30% of bankroll)
Fight ends inside the distance: Yes 1.70
Both carry real finishing threat and market leans to under 3.5 rounds, covering either early Van stoppage or Pantoja submission. Probability: 55%
🎯 method pick (20% of bankroll)
Joshua Van by KO/TKO 2.10
Directly matches predicted method, with Van's top damage the likeliest finish route. Probability: 38%
⚡ long shot (5% of bankroll)
Joshua Van to win in Round 2 6.00
Small stake on exact predicted timing for enhanced return, consistent with early-finish scenario. 18+ Gamble responsibly. Probability: 16%
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk. Play responsibly. 18+.
❓ FAQ: Joshua Van — Alexandre Pantoja
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The fight headlines UFC 331 at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, USA, on Sunday, September 20, 2026, with the main card starting around 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT. It is scheduled for 5 rounds of 5 minutes for the UFC Flyweight title.
The pick is Joshua Van to win by KO/TKO, most likely in Round 2-3. His youth, wrestling pressure and ground-and-pound are expected to overwhelm the 36-year-old former champion before Pantoja can settle into his counter and submission game.
The market average makes Joshua Van the favourite at around 1.70, with Alexandre Pantoja the underdog at around 2.14. The finish market leans to inside the distance at about 1.70, with Van by KO/TKO priced around 2.10. 18+ Gamble responsibly.
No, they have never met, so the head-to-head record is 0-0. Their common link is Brandon Moreno — Van beat Moreno decisively to win the title, while Pantoja lost the belt to Moreno in 2024 — which gives Van a psychological edge on recent form.
Joshua Van is key with his explosive double-leg takedowns, top control and improving left hook, plus his cardio at age 28. For Pantoja, his counter left hook and elite guard with guillotine and rear-naked choke threats are his clearest paths to an upset.
UFC 331 is expected to air as a pay-per-view on ESPN+ in the United States, with international broadcast via UFC Fight Pass and local UFC rights holders. Check your regional listings closer to fight night for exact start times.
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