Final result: RKS Radomiak Radom 0-2 Piast Gliwice. We predicted a narrow home win, but Piast Gliwice dominated with a 2-0 away victory. The match outcome was completely inverted from our forecast.
🧾 Prediction Summary
Radomiak Radom host Piast Gliwice in an evenly-contested Ekstraklasa fixture where bookmakers set the home side as marginal favourites at 2.375 against Piast's 2.74. Radomiak average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match, while Piast carry a slightly tighter away defensive record but a less productive attack on the road. Both sides have picked up seven points from their last five league games, pointing to a tight, low-scoring encounter. Prediction: Radomiak Radom 1-0 Piast Gliwice.
📅 Match Information
🗓️ Date & time: Monday, 14 September 2026, 19:00 CEST (17:00 UTC)
🏟️ Venue: Stadion Radomiaka, Radom, Poland (capacity: 8,400)
🏆 Competition: Poland. Ekstraklasa, Matchday 9, 2026/27 season
📊 Duration: 90 minutes plus stoppage time
⚖️ Division: Top division (Tier 1)
🔴 Team 1: Radomiak Radom — 11th place, 9 points
🔵⚪ Team 2: Piast Gliwice — 8th place, 11 points
🌡️ Weather: Partly cloudy, 18°C, light wind, dry pitch expected
🔎 In-Depth Team Analysis
🔴 RKS Radomiak Radom
Radomiak have been a steady mid-table presence in recent Ekstraklasa campaigns, relying on a compact defensive shape at home and the ability to grind out narrow results. Their home record this season reflects an average of 1.3 goals scored and conceded, suggesting a team that can compete but rarely dominates. Manager Joao Henriques has favoured a 4-2-3-1 formation that prioritises solidity in the middle third, and the squad's physicality in set-pieces remains a key weapon against opponents who concede from dead-ball situations.
With just 9 points from the opening stretch, Radomiak sit on the lower side of mid-table but only two points off the top six. A win here would boost morale considerably heading into a congested autumn fixture list. The absence of a long-term injury to their starting centre-back has been offset by the emergence of a young academy graduate who has performed credibly alongside the experienced stopper. Key attacking outlet Bruno Jordao on the left flank and striker Rafael Barbosa remain the primary creative and finishing threats.
- Attack: 1.3 goals per home match, with 60% of goals coming in the second half; set-piece conversion rate above league average
- Defence: 1.3 conceded per home match; solid when pressing high but vulnerable to counter-attacks down the right channel
- Recent form: W-D-L-D-W — seven points from the last fifteen available, showing resilience in drawn matches
- Home factor: Two wins and one draw from the opening four home fixtures; crowd of roughly 6,500 creates a decent atmosphere
- Key to victory: Control the tempo in midfield, limit Piast's ability to play through the thirds, and capitalise on set-piece opportunities
🔵 Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice, under the guidance of Aleksandar Vukovic, have built a reputation for tactical discipline and strong away organization. They average just 1.1 goals per away game but concede only around 1.0, making them one of the more difficult teams to break down on the road in the Ekstraklasa. Their 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 shape gives them numerical cover in wide areas, and they thrive in matches where the tempo is kept low.
Currently sitting eighth with eleven points, Piast are within striking distance of European qualifying positions. Forward Michael Ameyaw and the experienced midfielder Patryk Soka? are the standout performers so far, with Ameyaw contributing three goals and two assists across all competitions. Away form has been inconsistent — a single away win so far this term, with draws and narrow defeats defining their travel record. They will look to grind out at least a point here to keep pressure on the teams above them.
- Attack: 1.1 goals per away match; heavily reliant on counter-attacks and transition speed through Ameyaw
- Defence: 1.0 conceded per away match; best away defensive record in the lower half of the table
- Recent form: L-W-D-L-W — also seven points from the last fifteen, mirroring Radomiak's inconsistency
- Away factor: Only one away win from four road games this season; tend to draw low-scoring matches on neutral territory
- Key to victory: Stay compact between the lines, exploit gaps left by Radomiak's full-backs when they push forward, and set up for a low-block counter-attack in the second half
⚖️ Extended Comparison Table
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| Metric | 🔴 Home | 🔵⚪ Away | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| League position / Points | 11th / 9 pts | 8th / 11 pts | Piast Gliwice |
| Goals scored / conceded (season) | 10 scored / 11 conceded | 9 scored / 8 conceded | Piast Gliwice |
| Form (last 5 league games) | W-D-L-D-W | L-W-D-L-W | Even |
| xG / xGA per match | 1.25 / 1.32 | 1.18 / 1.10 | Piast Gliwice |
| Possession / Shots per match | 48% / 10.2 shots | 51% / 11.1 shots | Piast Gliwice |
| Head-to-head (last 5 meetings) | 2 wins | 2 wins (1 draw) | Even |
📊 Head-to-Head History
In the last five head-to-head meetings across all competitions, the record is finely balanced: Radomiak have won twice, Piast have won twice, and one match ended in a draw. The encounters have been notably low-scoring, with an average of 2.2 total goals per fixture and four out of five games finishing Under 2.5. Piast's last visit to Radom resulted in a 1-0 victory, but Radomiak have historically enjoyed good results at home against this opponent, winning their last two home meetings. The H2H trend strongly supports a tight, cagey affair decided by a single goal or a draw.
🤖 Extended AI Analysis
GPT-5.5 • Tactical duel
Radomiak's 4-2-3-1 will look to overload the centre against Piast's compact 4-4-2 block, with the game likely decided in midfield transitions and set pieces.
DeepSeek-R2 • Statistical edge
Both teams average under 1.35 goals scored per game and the H2H has gone Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings, pointing strongly to a low total.
Gemini 3 Pro • Home advantage
Radomiak have taken 7 points from 4 home games and won their last two home H2Hs against Piast, while Piast have only one away win this season.
Claude Opus 4.8 • Key individual battles
Bruno Jordao vs Pia st right-back and Rafael Barbosa vs Piast's central pairing will be decisive, with Piast relying on Michael Ameyaw on the counter.
💰 Average Odds (across bookmakers)
Full Betting Line
Match Result
- Radomiak Radom win: 2.38
- Draw: 3.40
- Piast Gliwice win: 2.75
Totals
- Under 2.5 goals: 1.72
- Over 2.5 goals: 2.08
Both Teams to Score
- Both teams to score – Yes: 1.95
- Both teams to score – No: 1.80
Handicaps
- Radomiak Radom (0) Handicap: 1.68
- Piast Gliwice (0) Handicap: 2.15
🎯 Tactical Breakdown & Scenarios
Radomiak Radom win (45%)
Probable score: 1-0
Home side controls midfield, keeps a clean sheet and decides the game via a set piece or second-half pressure.
Draw (30%)
Probable score: 1-1
Cagey first half with both teams cancelling each other out, one goal apiece after the break.
Piast Gliwice upset (25%)
Probable score: 0-1
Piast absorbs pressure and hits on the counter through Ameyaw to steal a narrow away win.
🏆 Final AI Consortium Verdict
🎯 Final Prediction
Radomiak Radom 1-0 Piast Gliwice
Marginal home edge and low-scoring H2H trend make a narrow Radomiak win the most probable outcome in a tight under 2.5 game where one clean sheet decides it.
Best bet: Radomiak Radom to win @ 2.38
💎 Optimal Staking Strategy
🥇 Main pick (45% of bankroll)
Radomiak Radom to win 2.38
Directly matches the 1-0 prediction and takes the value on the slight home favourite at market average Probability: 45%
💰 Safe pick (30% of bankroll)
Under 2.5 goals 1.72
Consistent with 1-0 scoreline; both teams average under 1.3 goals and 4 of last 5 H2Hs went under Probability: 62%
🎯 Handicap pick (20% of bankroll)
Radomiak Radom (0) Handicap – Draw No Bet 1.68
Covers the 1-1 draw scenario while still profiting from the predicted 1-0, no need for -1.5 which would lose on a one-goal margin Probability: 58%
⚡ Long shot (5% of bankroll)
Correct Score 1-0 to Radomiak Radom 6.50
Exact scoreline for the main scenario, offers high return in a game expected to be decided by one goal to nil Probability: 18%
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk. Play responsibly. 18+.
❓ FAQ: RKS Radomiak Radom — Piast Gliwice
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The match will be played on Monday, 14 September 2026 at 19:00 CEST (17:00 UTC) at Stadion Radomiaka in Radom, Poland. The stadium has a capacity of around 8,400. It is a Matchday 9 fixture in the 2026/27 Ekstraklasa season and lasts 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The forecast is partly cloudy, around 18°C with a dry pitch.
The main prediction is a narrow 1-0 win for Radomiak Radom. The analysis expects a tight, low-scoring game with few chances, where set pieces and home pressure in the second half decide the outcome. Draw (1-1) at 30% and an away upset 0-1 at 25% are considered the alternative scenarios.
On market average, the odds are: Radomiak Radom win 2.38, Draw 3.40, Piast Gliwice win 2.75. For totals, Under 2.5 goals is 1.72 and Over 2.5 is 2.08. Both teams to score is Yes 1.95 / No 1.80. Handicap 0 (Draw No Bet) is Radomiak 1.68 and Piast 2.15. The recommended best bet is Radomiak Radom to win at 2.38, consistent with the 1-0 forecast.
The last five meetings are perfectly balanced: Radomiak won 2, Piast won 2, and 1 ended in a draw. The games have been low-scoring, averaging 2.2 goals per match, with 4 of the last 5 going Under 2.5 goals. Piast won the last meeting in Radom 1-0, but Radomiak won the two home games before that.
For Radomiak, winger Bruno Jordao and striker Rafael Barbosa are the main attacking threats, especially from set pieces and second-half pressure. For Piast, forward Michael Ameyaw, the team's top scorer with three goals, and midfielder Patryk Dziczek are key for transitions and counter-attacks. The duel between Jordao and Piast's right-back, and Barbosa against Piast's central defenders, is likely to decide the game.
In Poland the Ekstraklasa is broadcast live on Canal+ Sport and Canal+ Online, with streaming also available on the Canal+ and Ekstraklasa TV platforms. Internationally, check your local rights holder or the official Ekstraklasa streaming service. Live score updates, line-ups and statistics will be available on FotMob, Flashscore and the clubs' official websites. Kick-off is at 19:00 CEST.
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