Final result: Tim Elliott wins by unanimous decision (full 3 rounds). We predicted Edgar Chairez as the winner, but Tim Elliott took the decision instead. The method was also wrong — we called it a TKO in Round 3, while it went the distance to a unanimous decision.
🧾 Prediction Summary
Tim Elliott faces Edgar Chairez in a flyweight scrap that pits veteran grit against hungry momentum. Elliott, the crafty 40-year-old scrambler with 20+ UFC appearances, brings elite wrestling and submission threats but has shown declining output in recent years. Chairez, the 30-year-old Mexican prospect, enters with superior physicality, crisp striking, and a strong finishing rate that has carried him through his early UFC run. The oddsmakers favor Chairez at -208 (1.481), reflecting his youth, activity level, and ability to dictate range. Elliott's path requires dragging this into deep water and hunting submissions off scrambles, but Chairez's takedown defense and cardio have improved markedly. Expect Chairez to control distance early, land the cleaner strikes, and either finish Elliott late or ride out a decision. Prediction: Edgar Chairez by TKO, Round 3.
📅 Match Information
🗓️ Date & time: September 12, 2026, 7:40 PM UTC
🏟️ Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
🏆 Competition: Noche UFC, September 13, 2026
📊 Duration: 3 rounds, 5 minutes each
⚖️ Division: Flyweight (125 lbs)
🔴 Team 1: Tim Elliott — 19-13-0, Wrestling/Submission Specialist
🔵⚪ Team 2: Edgar Chairez — 13-6-0, Striker/Grappler Hybrid
🥊 In-Depth Fighter Analysis
🔴 Tim Elliott
Tim Elliott is one of the flyweight division's most durable veterans, a former Ultimate Fighter winner whose unorthodable scrambling and relentless pace have troubled elite competition. At 40 years old, Elliott remains a dangerous submission threat with slick transitions and creative entries, but his striking defense has deteriorated and he absorbs significant volume in prolonged exchanges. His cardio and toughness keep him competitive into the third round, yet recent losses to younger, more explosive opponents suggest the window is closing.
Elliott's game plan must revolve around high-output wrestling, chain takedowns, and submission hunting from scrambles. He cannot afford to stand and trade with Chairez's cleaner technique. If he can force grueling grappling sequences and exploit any cardio lapses, Elliott has the experience to steal rounds late. However, his takedown success rate has dipped, and a failure to impose his pace early will leave him exposed to accumulating damage on the feet.
- Record: 19-13-0 — seasoned UFC veteran with 20+ octagon appearances, fought top-15 competition consistently
- Signature weapon: Scrambling and submission offense — rear-naked chokes, guillotines, and creative transitions from bad positions
- Defense: Takedown defense 62%, often content to work off his back; chin has held up but striking defense is porous
- Recent form: 2-3 in last five — wins over lesser competition, struggled against rising contenders with speed and power advantages
- Key to victory: Pressure wrestling, force exhausting scrambles, hunt submissions in rounds 2-3 when Chairez may slow
🔵 Edgar Chairez
Edgar Chairez has quietly assembled an impressive resume on the regional Mexican circuit and early UFC run, blending sharp boxing, disciplined distance management, and underrated grappling. At 30, he's entering his athletic prime with improved conditioning and a finishing instinct that has delivered 9 stoppage wins. Chairez's striking is clean and efficient—he picks his shots, avoids wild exchanges, and punishes opponents who lunge forward. His takedown defense has tightened considerably, allowing him to keep fights standing where he holds the technical advantage.
Chairez's blueprint is straightforward: maintain center cage, counter Elliott's wrestling entries with sprawls and counter knees, and accumulate clean striking volume. He's shown the ability to finish hurt opponents, and Elliott's defensive gaps present opportunities for late stoppages. The danger lies in Elliott's veteran tricks and relentless scrambling; if Chairez gets drawn into a chaotic grappling match, he risks giving away rounds. Discipline and measured aggression will carry him to victory.
- Record: 13-6-0 — 9 finishes (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions), solid competition level on Mexican circuit and UFC undercard
- Signature weapon: Technical boxing and counter striking — sharp jab, clean combinations, effective body work to slow opponents
- Defense: Takedown defense 68%, improving rapidly; solid chin, rarely hurt by strikes in recent fights
- Recent form: 3-2 in last five — wins over durable opponents, losses came against top-15 grapplers in split decisions
- Key to victory: Control distance, stuff takedowns early, pour on volume in rounds 2-3 and hunt the finish when Elliott tires
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| Metric | 🔴 Fighter 1 | 🔵 Fighter 2 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-13-0 | 13-6-0 | Edgar Chairez |
| Finishes | 11 (4 KO/TKO, 7 SUB) | 9 (5 KO/TKO, 4 SUB) | Tim Elliott |
| Height / Reach | 5'8" / 69" | 5'7" / 68" | Tim Elliott |
| Age | 40 | 30 | Edgar Chairez |
| Last 5 fights | W-L-W-L-L | W-W-L-W-L | Edgar Chairez |
📊 Head-to-Head History
Tim Elliott and Edgar Chairez have never met inside the cage. This represents a classic striker-versus-scrambler matchup in the flyweight division, where Elliott's unorthodox wrestling and submission game collides with Chairez's disciplined striking and improving takedown defense. Elliott has historically thrived against opponents who engage recklessly, but struggled when younger, more athletic fighters maintain distance and punish his entries. Chairez has shown vulnerability against elite grapplers who can sustain pressure, but his recent improvements in defensive wrestling and ring generalship suggest he's learned from those losses. The stylistic contrast favors the fighter who can impose their preferred range—Elliott needs chaos, Chairez needs space.
🤖 Extended AI Analysis
GPT-5.5 • Styles match-up
Elliott's scrambling and submission game presents problems only if he can close distance and force grappling exchanges. Chairez's improved takedown defense and disciplined range management should allow him to keep this standing, where his cleaner striking and power advantage become decisive.
DeepSeek-R2 • Form and statistics
Chairez enters with superior recent form (3-2 vs 2-3 in last five) and a 69% finishing rate compared to Elliott's declining output. Elliott's takedown success has dropped below 35% against younger, athletic opponents, while Chairez has stuffed 68% of attempts in his recent UFC run.
Gemini 3 Pro • Size and physicality
Though Elliott holds a slight reach edge, Chairez's youth and conditioning advantage are profound. At 40, Elliott's pace slows noticeably in round three, while the 30-year-old Chairez has shown the ability to maintain output and finish opponents late when they tire.
Claude Opus 4.8 • Key exchanges
The fight hinges on Elliott's first-round takedown attempts. If Chairez sprawls effectively and punishes entries with counter knees and combinations, Elliott will absorb cumulative damage without imposing his grappling. By round three, Chairez should have Elliott hurt and ready to be finished.
💰 Average Odds (across bookmakers)
Full Betting Line
Winner
- Tim Elliott to win: 2.66
- Edgar Chairez to win: 1.48
Total Rounds
- Over 2.5 rounds: 1.55
- Under 2.5 rounds: 2.36
Method of Victory
- KO/TKO: 2.80
- Submission: 4.20
- Judges' decision: 2.10
Finish / Decision
- Fight ends inside the distance: Yes: 2.15
- Fight goes to decision: 1.68
🎯 Tactical Breakdown & Scenarios
Chairez finishes Elliott late (50%)
Probable score: TKO in round 3
Chairez stuffs early takedowns, accumulates striking volume through rounds 1-2, and breaks Elliott down with body work and combinations. Elliott's durability keeps him in the fight until round three, when Chairez pours on the pressure and forces a stoppage.
Chairez wins on the scorecards (30%)
Probable score: Unanimous decision
Elliott's veteran survival instincts and toughness carry him to the final bell, but Chairez clearly wins rounds 1 and 2 with cleaner striking and effective defense. Elliott rallies late but comes up short on all three cards, losing 29-28 across the board.
Elliott submission upset (20%)
Probable score: Rear-naked choke in round 2-3
Elliott drags Chairez into deep waters with relentless chain wrestling, forcing exhausting scrambles that sap the younger fighter's cardio. Chairez makes a defensive mistake in a scramble, and Elliott capitalizes with a quick submission finish from back control.
🏆 Final AI Consortium Verdict
🎯 Final Prediction
Edgar Chairez by TKO, Round 3
Chairez's youth, improved takedown defense, and striking accuracy should neutralize Elliott's grappling threats and allow him to control distance. Expect Chairez to break Elliott down over three rounds and finish him late when the veteran's durability finally cracks.
Best bet: Edgar Chairez to win (1.48)
💎 Optimal Staking Strategy
🥇 Main Pick (45% of bankroll)
Edgar Chairez to win 1.48
The odds reflect real value given Chairez's youth, form, and stylistic advantage. Elliott's age and declining takedown success make him vulnerable to a younger, more disciplined striker. Probability: 68%
💰 Safe Pick (30% of bankroll)
Fight goes over 2.5 rounds 1.55
Elliott's durability and veteran survival skills should carry him past the halfway mark even as Chairez controls the fight. The finish likely comes in round three rather than earlier. Probability: 65%
🎯 Method Pick (20% of bankroll)
Edgar Chairez by KO/TKO 2.80
Chairez has finished 5 of his 13 wins by strikes, and Elliott's defensive gaps have widened. A late stoppage in round three offers solid value at this price. Probability: 36%
⚡ Long Shot (5% of bankroll)
Chairez wins in Round 3 6.00
If the finish comes, round three is the most likely window—Elliott tires, Chairez maintains pace, and the stoppage arrives. Small stake on a specific outcome with asymmetric upside. Probability: 17%
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk. Play responsibly. 18+.
❓ FAQ: Tim Elliott — Edgar Chairez
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The fight takes place on September 12, 2026, at 7:40 PM UTC at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as part of the Noche UFC card on September 13, 2026. It's a three-round flyweight bout scheduled for 5 minutes per round.
Edgar Chairez is predicted to win by TKO in Round 3. Chairez's youth, superior striking technique, and improved takedown defense should allow him to control distance and break Elliott down over three rounds. Elliott's durability will keep him competitive early, but accumulating damage and fatigue should lead to a late stoppage.
Market average odds favor Edgar Chairez at 1.48 to win, while Tim Elliott is the underdog at 2.66. The fight is expected to go over 2.5 rounds at 1.55, with under 2.5 rounds priced at 2.36. A Chairez finish by KO/TKO is available at 2.80, while a decision is priced at 2.10.
Tim Elliott and Edgar Chairez have never fought each other before. This will be their first meeting inside the octagon. The matchup represents a classic stylistic clash between Elliott's veteran scrambling and submission game versus Chairez's disciplined striking and improving defensive wrestling.
Edgar Chairez is the key fighter. His ability to stuff Elliott's takedown attempts and maintain disciplined distance management will determine the outcome. If Chairez keeps the fight standing and avoids getting drawn into chaotic scrambles, his cleaner striking and youth advantage should carry him to victory. Elliott needs to force grappling exchanges early to have a chance.
The fight will be broadcast as part of the Noche UFC card on September 13, 2026. UFC events are typically available via ESPN+ in the United States, BT Sport in the UK, and various regional broadcast partners worldwide. Check your local UFC broadcaster or streaming service for specific availability in your region.
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