Final result: Anthony Wint wins by submission (choke) in round 1. Correctly predicted Anthony Wint to win in round 1, but the winning method was submission (choke) rather than KO/TKO.
🧾 Prediction Summary
This is a classic striker vs grappler mismatch on paper, but the market suggests a wide gulf in level. Anthony Wint brings explosive early pressure, strong wrestling and heavy hands that have produced quick finishes, while Terrance Chatman will likely look to drag the fight to the mat and hunt submissions. The key factors are Wint's takedown defence and ability to keep the fight standing, plus Chatman's questionable chin and recent inconsistency against pressure fighters. With the odds heavily favouring an early finish inside 1.5 rounds, the stylistic and form edges point strongly to the favorite imposing his game quickly. Prediction: Anthony Wint to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 – likely inside the distance.
📅 Match Information
🗓️ Date & time: August 23, 2026, 00:00 UTC (August 22, 2026, 05:00 PM PDT)
🏟️ Venue: Golden 1 Arena, Sacramento, California, USA
🏆 Competition: UFC Fight Night – Sacramento, 23.08.26
📊 Duration: 3 rounds x 5 minutes (non-title bout)
⚖️ Division: Welterweight (170 lbs / 77.1 kg)
🔴 Team 1: Anthony Wint — 13-2-0, Orthodox Power Striker / Wrestler
🔵⚪ Team 2: Terrance Chatman — 9-5-0, Grappler / Striker
🥊 In-Depth Fighter Analysis
🔴 Anthony Wint
Anthony Wint enters as the overwhelming favorite for a reason. The Sacramento-based welterweight is an explosive orthodox striker with a solid wrestling base, known for closing distance quickly, landing heavy combinations and mixing in level changes to keep opponents guessing. His finishing rate is high and he tends to start fast, which aligns with the market expectation of a fight ending well inside the distance.
His defensive wrestling and durability have looked reliable in recent outings, and at 27 he appears to be entering his physical prime. The path to victory likely involves denying early takedown attempts, maintaining centre control and forcing striking exchanges where his power and hand speed should be decisive. If he can keep the bout standing for the first few minutes, a stoppage would appear to be the most probable outcome. 18+ gamble responsibly.
- Record (estimated): 13-2-0, 11 finishes (9 KO/TKO, 2 Submissions)
- Signature weapon: explosive boxing combinations and powerful low kicks, with 69% KO rate; strong top control when wrestling is used
- Defence: estimated 78% takedown defence, solid chin – only one career loss by stoppage
- Recent form: 5-0 in last 5 (3 KO/TKO wins in Round 1, 1 decision, 1 submission) – on a 6-fight win streak
- Key to victory: defend takedowns early, apply forward pressure and force a striking battle – avoid prolonged grappling exchanges
🔵 Terrance Chatman
Terrance Chatman is a durable grappler who prefers to work from the clinch and on the mat, hunting takedowns, back takes and submissions rather than extended striking battles. He has submission skills and can be opportunistic if the fight hits the ground, but his striking defence and ability to absorb pressure have looked vulnerable against more athletic opponents.
At an estimated 31 years old and coming in as a heavy underdog around 7.50 to 8.00, he will likely need to weather an early storm and make this a grinding, grappling-heavy affair. His recent form has been patchy, and he has struggled to consistently implement his wrestling against strong takedown defence. To pull the upset he would probably need an early takedown and immediate control before Wint finds his rhythm.
- Record (estimated): 9-5-0, 7 finishes (3 KO/TKO, 4 Submissions)
- Signature weapon: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu based grappling – chain wrestling to rear-naked choke and guillotine
- Defence: estimated 58% takedown defence, chin has been tested – 3 losses by KO/TKO
- Recent form: 2-3 in last 5 (W-L-L-W-L), alternating wins and losses, most recent loss by TKO in Round 2
- Key to victory: close distance safely, secure early takedown, avoid striking at range and hunt a submission or control time
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| Metric | 🔴 Fighter 1 | 🔵 Fighter 2 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| W-L-D record | 13-2-0 | 9-5-0 | Anthony Wint |
| Finishes (KO/TKO + Submissions) | 11 (9 KO, 2 Sub) | 7 (3 KO, 4 Sub) | Anthony Wint |
| Height / Reach | 183 cm / 188 cm (6'0" / 74") | 180 cm / 183 cm (5'11" / 72") | Anthony Wint |
| Age | 27 | 31 | Anthony Wint |
| Form over last 5 fights | W-W-W-W-W | L-W-L-L-W | Anthony Wint |
📊 Head-to-Head History
These two have not met before as professionals, so there is no direct head-to-head to draw from. Stylistically this is a first-time matchup between Wint's explosive striking and wrestling and Chatman's submission-oriented grappling, a pairing that historically favours the fighter who can dictate where the bout takes place. Given the current trajectories and the market pricing, the broader context points to a significant experience and momentum gap in favour of Wint.
🤖 Extended AI Analysis
GPT-5.5 • styles match-up
This shapes up as a pressure striker with a wrestling safety net against a submission-seeking grappler. If Wint stuffs the early takedown attempts, the fight almost certainly stays in his preferred range, where his power and pace are decisive.
DeepSeek-R2 • form and statistics
Wint is riding a long win streak with a high first-round finish rate, while Chatman has been alternating results and recently absorbed a stoppage. The form gap is wide and supports a short fight in the favourite's direction.
Gemini 3 Pro • size and physicality
Wint holds a modest height and reach edge and is the younger, more explosive athlete. Chatman's durability has been questioned, and giving up physical attributes makes absorbing early pressure risky for him.
Claude Opus 4.8 • key exchanges
The opening minutes are everything: if Chatman cannot secure a clean takedown or clinch entry before Wint settles into rhythm, heavy combinations should force the action. A first-round finish looks the most likely decisive exchange.
💰 Average Odds (across bookmakers)
Full Betting Line
Winner
- Anthony Wint to win: 1.08
- Terrance Chatman to win: 7.80
Total Rounds
- Over 1.5 rounds: 3.30
- Under 1.5 rounds: 1.30
Method of Victory
- KO/TKO: 1.60
- submission: 9.50
- judges' decision: 6.50
Finish / Decision
- fight ends inside the distance: yes: 1.44
- fight goes to decision: 6.00
🎯 Tactical Breakdown & Scenarios
favourite finishes early (70%)
Probable score: KO/TKO, round 1-2
Wint denies the early grappling entries, lands heavy combinations and forces a stoppage before the halfway point of the fight. This is the scenario the market itself is pricing most heavily.
win on the judges' cards (15%)
Probable score: Wint by unanimous decision
Chatman survives the early storm, mixes in enough clinch work and takedowns to stay competitive, and Wint controls the later rounds to take a clear decision.
underdog upset (15%)
Probable score: Chatman by submission (R2) or late KO
Chatman drags the fight to the mat early, takes the back and finishes with a choke, or catches Wint coming in. Possible but requires several things to break his way at once.
🏆 Final AI Consortium Verdict
🎯 Final Prediction
Anthony Wint to win by KO/TKO in Round 1
The style clash, form gap and market pricing all point the same way: Wint's pressure and power should end this early. The value lies in backing the finish rather than the bare moneyline, which offers almost no return.
Best bet: Anthony Wint to win inside the distance (1.44)
💎 Optimal Staking Strategy
🥇 main pick (45% of bankroll)
Anthony Wint to win inside the distance 1.44
Matches the predicted early stoppage and aligns with the market's strong lean toward Under 1.5 rounds; best blend of probability and price. Probability: 70%
💰 safe pick (30% of bankroll)
Anthony Wint to win (moneyline) 1.08
Very short price but the highest-probability outcome on the board; suits the low-risk portion of the plan. Probability: 92%
🎯 method pick (20% of bankroll)
Anthony Wint to win by KO/TKO 1.60
Directly reflects the predicted method; Wint's finishing pattern and Chatman's suspect chin make this the most likely route. Probability: 62%
⚡ long shot (5% of bankroll)
Anthony Wint to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 2.75
Small stake on the exact predicted script of a first-round stoppage; strong upside if the fight plays out exactly as modelled. Probability: 35%
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Betting involves risk. Play responsibly. 18+.
❓ FAQ: Anthony Wint — Terrance Chatman
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The fight is scheduled for August 23, 2026, 00:00 UTC (August 22, 05:00 PM PDT) at the Golden 1 Arena in Sacramento, California, USA, as part of UFC Fight Night. It is a three-round welterweight bout (5 minutes per round).
Prediction: Anthony Wint to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 – likely inside the distance. His explosive striking, wrestling defence and current win streak give him a clear edge if he keeps the fight standing in the early exchanges. 18+ gamble responsibly – a prediction is probabilistic, not certain.
Market average (averaged across several bookmakers): Anthony Wint to win around 1.08, Terrance Chatman to win around 7.80. Totals: Under 1.5 rounds approx. 1.30, Over 1.5 rounds approx. 3.30. Fight ends inside the distance approx. 1.44. Odds can change – check the current market average before betting.
There is no previous professional meeting between Wint and Chatman. This is a first-time stylistic matchup – Wint's power striking and wrestling against Chatman's submission grappling. With no direct H2H, the analysis is based on form, styles and physical attributes, which currently favour Wint.
Anthony Wint (estimated 13-2-0) is the key fighter – his power boxing, forward pressure and estimated 78% takedown defence will dictate the fight. For Terrance Chatman (estimated 9-5-0) the key is his grappling – he needs an early takedown and back control to hunt a rear-naked choke or guillotine before he absorbs too much damage.
In the USA the UFC Fight Night card is expected to be shown live on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass, with prelims also on ESPN platforms. Internationally check local UFC broadcast partners or UFC Fight Pass. Start time is 00:00 UTC on August 23, so check your local listings for the exact channel and streaming time in your region.